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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection contains 23 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Festive Rack, Trapper's Flap. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

23Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 7 outputs has a 14.29% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 7.14% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 7 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Winter 2022 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #139

Winter 2022 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2022 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2022-12-04. Requires a Winter 2022 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando7 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Arctic Mole

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Bulb Bonnet

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Cold Blooded Coat

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Crosshair Cardigan

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Glasgow Bankroll

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Heavy Heating

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Lumbercap

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Oktoberfester

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Partizan

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Soft Hard Hat

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Firebrand

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Frostbite Bonnet

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Infiltrator's Insulation

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Ol' Reliable

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Plaid Lad

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • The Cool Warm Sweater

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Underminer's Overcoat

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

Assassin Grade
  • Battle Bear

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Colonel Kringle

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Motley Sleeves

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • The Wooly Pulli

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Festive Rack

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Trapper's Flap

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost33.80 ref
Expected value34.22 ref
Expected P/L+0.42 ref
ROI1.2%
Win chance29%
Cheapest quoted inputOktoberfester3.38 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1 key + 41.17 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputPartizan10.55 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Arctic Mole3.66 refChecks when viewed11.66 refChecks when viewed
Bulb BonnetSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed11.44 refChecks when viewed
Cold Blooded Coat6.00 refChecks when viewed1 key + 3.66 refChecks when viewed
Crosshair Cardigan3.66 refChecks when viewed11.22 refChecks when viewed
Glasgow Bankroll13.55 refChecks when viewed39.88 refChecks when viewed
Heavy Heating14.66 refChecks when viewed37.00 refChecks when viewed
Lumbercap3.83 refChecks when viewed11.44 refChecks when viewed
Oktoberfester3.38 refChecks when viewed14.88 refChecks when viewed
Partizan3.38 refChecks when viewed10.55 refChecks when viewed
The Soft Hard Hat3.55 refChecks when viewed11.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Firebrand14.3%2 keys + 19.55 refChecks when viewed7 keys + 26.66 refChecks when viewed
Frostbite Bonnet14.3%6.55 refChecks when viewed25.22 refChecks when viewed
Infiltrator's Insulation14.3%7.00 refChecks when viewed25.77 refChecks when viewed
Ol' Reliable14.3%10.77 refChecks when viewed30.66 refChecks when viewed
Plaid Lad14.3%11.33 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
The Cool Warm Sweater14.3%8.33 refChecks when viewed25.55 refChecks when viewed
Underminer's Overcoat14.3%47.33 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 17.44 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 5.67 ref
Expected value1 key + 1.26 ref
Expected P/L−4.41 ref
ROI-6.3%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputInfiltrator's Insulation7.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost4 keys + 22.68 ref
Expected value3 keys + 62.08 ref
Expected P/L−24.94 ref
ROI-8.9%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Cool Warm Sweater28.00 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Firebrand2 keys + 19.55 refChecks when viewed7 keys + 51.55 refChecks when viewed
Frostbite Bonnet7.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Infiltrator's Insulation7.00 refChecks when viewed28.22 refChecks when viewed
Ol' Reliable11.22 refChecks when viewed31.11 refChecks when viewed
Plaid Lad11.33 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Cool Warm Sweater8.44 refChecks when viewed28.00 refChecks when viewed
Underminer's Overcoat58.88 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 28.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Battle Bear25.0%44.00 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 20.33 refChecks when viewed
Colonel Kringle25.0%24.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 6.44 refChecks when viewed
Motley Sleeves25.0%1 key + 8.00 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 1.77 refChecks when viewed
The Wooly Pulli25.0%1 key + 57.05 refChecks when viewed5 keys + 26.77 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost3 keys + 54.71 ref
Expected value2 keys + 2.83 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 51.88 ref
ROI-46.9%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputColonel Kringle24.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost11 keys + 14.47 ref
Expected value6 keys + 18.22 ref
Expected P/L−4 keys − 60.58 ref
ROI-44.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputColonel Kringle1 key + 7.88 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Battle Bear44.11 refChecks when viewed7 keys + 53.66 refChecks when viewed
Colonel Kringle24.77 refChecks when viewed1 key + 7.88 refChecks when viewed
Motley Sleeves1 key + 10.88 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 5.44 refChecks when viewed
The Wooly Pulli1 key + 57.22 refChecks when viewed5 keys + 26.77 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Festive Rack50.0%48.55 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 35.66 refChecks when viewed
Trapper's Flap50.0%3 keys + 21.44 refChecks when viewed9 keys + 0.77 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Firebrand

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Firebrand, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Firebrand trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Frostbite Bonnet

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Frostbite Bonnet, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Frostbite Bonnet trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Infiltrator's Insulation

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Infiltrator's Insulation, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Infiltrator's Insulation trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Ol' Reliable

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Ol' Reliable, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Ol' Reliable trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Plaid Lad

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Plaid Lad, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Plaid Lad trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Cool Warm Sweater

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of The Cool Warm Sweater, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Cool Warm Sweater trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Underminer's Overcoat

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Underminer's Overcoat, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Underminer's Overcoat trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Battle Bear

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Battle Bear, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Battle Bear trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Colonel Kringle

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Colonel Kringle, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Colonel Kringle trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Motley Sleeves

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Motley Sleeves, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Motley Sleeves trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Wooly Pulli

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Wooly Pulli, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Wooly Pulli trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Festive Rack

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Festive Rack, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Festive Rack trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Trapper's Flap

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Trapper's Flap, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Trapper's Flap trade-up odds →

How Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2022 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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