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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection contains 23 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is The Old Days Devotion. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

23Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

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Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 8 outputs has a 12.50% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 6.25% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 8 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Winter 2025 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #150

Winter 2025 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2025 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2025-12-04. Requires a Winter 2025 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Air Head

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Alpine Apparel

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Black Tie Affair

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Deserter's Duster

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Epilogue Locks

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Lazer Gazers

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Puncher's Polar Puffer

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Scrub Stompers

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Snow Merc

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Sydney Shearling

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Alpine Hawk

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Aristocravat

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Chill-Seeker

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Commonwealth Commander

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Festive Fleece

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Flatline Flatcap

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Scrooge McCrocket

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Sole Providers

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Blizzard Bonnet

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Cardiologist's Cardigan

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Veteran's Visor

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Willis' Warmer

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • The Old Days Devotion

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost28.80 ref
Expected value15.23 ref
Expected P/L−13.57 ref
ROI-47.1%
Win chance13%
Cheapest quoted inputSnow Merc2.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost41.10 ref
Expected value34.45 ref
Expected P/L−6.65 ref
ROI-16.2%
Win chance13%
Cheapest quoted inputSnow Merc4.11 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Air Head2.88 refChecks when viewed4.22 refChecks when viewed
Alpine Apparel4.33 refChecks when viewed12.00 refChecks when viewed
Black Tie Affair3.33 refChecks when viewed11.44 refChecks when viewed
Deserter's Duster16.22 refChecks when viewed37.77 refChecks when viewed
Epilogue Locks3.33 refChecks when viewed7.00 refChecks when viewed
Lazer Gazers4.88 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Puncher's Polar Puffer6.55 refChecks when viewed11.00 refChecks when viewed
Scrub Stompers4.88 refChecks when viewed17.11 refChecks when viewed
Snow Merc2.88 refChecks when viewed4.11 refChecks when viewed
Sydney Shearling3.55 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Alpine Hawk12.5%4.22 refChecks when viewed12.88 refChecks when viewed
Aristocravat12.5%5.22 refChecks when viewed13.33 refChecks when viewed
Chill-Seeker12.5%5.00 refChecks when viewed13.11 refChecks when viewed
Commonwealth Commander12.5%10.88 refChecks when viewed28.33 refChecks when viewed
Festive Fleece12.5%11.44 refChecks when viewed27.77 refChecks when viewed
Flatline Flatcap12.5%5.55 refChecks when viewed14.00 refChecks when viewed
Scrooge McCrocket12.5%6.44 refChecks when viewed19.55 refChecks when viewed
The Sole Providers12.5%1 key + 8.77 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 17.94 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost54.40 ref
Expected value62.36 ref
Expected P/L+7.95 ref
ROI14.6%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputAlpine Hawk5.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 13.54 ref
Expected value2 keys + 19.39 ref
Expected P/L+5.84 ref
ROI4.1%
Win chance75%
Cheapest quoted inputChill-Seeker14.22 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Alpine Hawk5.44 refChecks when viewed14.66 refChecks when viewed
Aristocravat5.88 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Chill-Seeker5.66 refChecks when viewed14.22 refChecks when viewed
Commonwealth Commander11.66 refChecks when viewed30.66 refChecks when viewed
Festive Fleece13.11 refChecks when viewed28.22 refChecks when viewed
Flatline Flatcap5.66 refChecks when viewed14.77 refChecks when viewed
Scrooge McCrocketSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed22.11 refChecks when viewed
The Sole ProvidersSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed2 keys + 33.22 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Blizzard Bonnet25.0%7.77 refChecks when viewed40.55 refChecks when viewed
Cardiologist's Cardigan25.0%47.00 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 26.44 refChecks when viewed
Veteran's Visor25.0%2 keys + 7.55 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 32.88 refChecks when viewed
Willis' Warmer25.0%58.44 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 42.00 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 16.77 ref
Expected value36.77 ref
Expected P/L−44.33 ref
ROI-54.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputBlizzard Bonnet8.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost28 keys + 17.56 ref
Expected value2 keys + 35.22 ref
Expected P/L−25 keys − 46.67 ref
ROI-91.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputCardiologist's Cardigan2 keys + 53.22 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Blizzard Bonnet8.11 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Cardiologist's Cardigan47.11 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 53.22 refChecks when viewed
Veteran's Visor2 keys + 15.77 refChecks when viewed4 keysChecks when viewed
Willis' Warmer1 key + 8.00 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 6.22 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
The Old Days Devotion100.0%36.77 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 35.22 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Alpine Hawk

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Alpine Hawk, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Alpine Hawk trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Aristocravat

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Aristocravat, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Aristocravat trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Chill-Seeker

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Chill-Seeker, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Chill-Seeker trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Commonwealth Commander

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Commonwealth Commander, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Commonwealth Commander trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Festive Fleece

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Festive Fleece, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Festive Fleece trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Flatline Flatcap

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Flatline Flatcap, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Flatline Flatcap trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Scrooge McCrocket

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Scrooge McCrocket, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Scrooge McCrocket trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Sole Providers

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Sole Providers, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Sole Providers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Blizzard Bonnet

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Blizzard Bonnet, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blizzard Bonnet trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cardiologist's Cardigan

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Cardiologist's Cardigan, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cardiologist's Cardigan trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Veteran's Visor

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Veteran's Visor, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Veteran's Visor trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Willis' Warmer

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Willis' Warmer, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Willis' Warmer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Old Days Devotion

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of The Old Days Devotion, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate The Old Days Devotion trade-up odds →

How Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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