How are Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection contains 23 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is The Old Days Devotion. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

23Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:02:16 GMT

Container information · Series #150

Winter 2025 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2025 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2025-12-04. Requires a Winter 2025 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Air Head
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Alpine Apparel
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Black Tie Affair
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Deserter's Duster
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Epilogue Locks
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Lazer Gazers
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Puncher's Polar Puffer
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Scrub Stompers
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Snow Merc
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Sydney Shearling
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade

Alpine Hawk
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Aristocravat
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Chill-Seeker
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Commonwealth Commander
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Festive Fleece
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Flatline Flatcap
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Scrooge McCrocket
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
The Sole Providers
Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade

Blizzard Bonnet
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%
Cardiologist's Cardigan
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%
Veteran's Visor
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%
Willis' Warmer
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade

The Old Days Devotion
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost31.10 ref

Expected value11.07 ref

Expected P/L−20.03 ref

ROI-64.4%

Win chance13%

Cheapest quoted inputSnow Merc3.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost35.50 ref

Expected value26.39 ref

Expected P/L−9.11 ref

ROI-25.7%

Win chance13%

Cheapest quoted inputAir Head3.55 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Air Head	3.11 ref	3.55 ref
Alpine Apparel	4.22 ref	9.00 ref
Black Tie Affair	3.22 ref	10.33 ref
Deserter's Duster	15.44 ref	44.55 ref
Epilogue Locks	3.11 ref	5.55 ref
Lazer Gazers	No eligible quote	15.66 ref
Puncher's Polar Puffer	5.77 ref	14.22 ref
Scrub Stompers	4.66 ref	15.44 ref
Snow Merc	3.11 ref	4.00 ref
Sydney Shearling	No eligible quote	16.55 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Alpine Hawk	12.5%	4.33 ref	12.33 ref
Aristocravat	12.5%	4.00 ref	11.55 ref
Chill-Seeker	12.5%	4.55 ref	10.66 ref
Commonwealth Commander	12.5%	12.00 ref	34.00 ref
Festive Fleece	12.5%	11.00 ref	20.22 ref
Flatline Flatcap	12.5%	4.55 ref	15.11 ref
Scrooge McCrocket	12.5%	5.44 ref	12.88 ref
The Sole Providers	12.5%	42.66 ref	1 key + 30.00 ref

Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost45.50 ref

Expected value58.99 ref

Expected P/L+13.49 ref

ROI29.7%

Win chance50%

Cheapest quoted inputFlatline Flatcap4.55 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost1 key + 41.17 ref

Expected value2 keys + 10.97 ref

Expected P/L+34.13 ref

ROI32.4%

Win chance75%

Cheapest quoted inputChill-Seeker10.55 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Alpine Hawk	5.00 ref	13.11 ref
Aristocravat	5.44 ref	11.55 ref
Chill-Seeker	5.27 ref	10.55 ref
Commonwealth Commander	13.00 ref	39.66 ref
Festive Fleece	11.33 ref	No eligible quote
Flatline Flatcap	4.55 ref	22.16 ref
Scrooge McCrocket	5.66 ref	45.77 ref
The Sole Providers	No eligible quote	2 keys + 13.38 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Blizzard Bonnet	25.0%	6.88 ref	32.11 ref
Cardiologist's Cardigan	25.0%	42.22 ref	2 keys + 29.88 ref
Veteran's Visor	25.0%	2 keys + 6.33 ref	3 keys + 38.11 ref
Willis' Warmer	25.0%	51.88 ref	2 keys + 8.11 ref

Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost1 key + 13.37 ref

Expected value30.22 ref

Expected P/L−47.48 ref

ROI-61.1%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputBlizzard Bonnet7.77 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost5 keys + 26.05 ref

Expected value2 keys + 27.22 ref

Expected P/L−2 keys − 63.16 ref

ROI-55.2%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputBlizzard Bonnet34.77 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Blizzard Bonnet	7.77 ref	34.77 ref
Cardiologist's Cardigan	42.44 ref	2 keys + 62.44 ref
Veteran's Visor	2 keys + 8.55 ref	3 keys + 45.22 ref
Willis' Warmer	52.00 ref	2 keys + 25.77 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
The Old Days Devotion	100.0%	30.22 ref	2 keys + 27.22 ref

How to trade up to Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Alpine Hawk

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Alpine Hawk, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Alpine Hawk trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Aristocravat

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Aristocravat, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Aristocravat trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Chill-Seeker

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Chill-Seeker, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Chill-Seeker trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Commonwealth Commander

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Commonwealth Commander, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Commonwealth Commander trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Festive Fleece

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Festive Fleece, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Festive Fleece trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Flatline Flatcap

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Flatline Flatcap, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Flatline Flatcap trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Scrooge McCrocket

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Scrooge McCrocket, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Scrooge McCrocket trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Sole Providers

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Sole Providers, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Sole Providers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Blizzard Bonnet

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Blizzard Bonnet, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blizzard Bonnet trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cardiologist's Cardigan

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Cardiologist's Cardigan, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cardiologist's Cardigan trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Veteran's Visor

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Veteran's Visor, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Veteran's Visor trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Willis' Warmer

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Willis' Warmer, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Willis' Warmer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Old Days Devotion

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of The Old Days Devotion, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Old Days Devotion trade-up odds →

How Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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