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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Summer 2023 Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2023 Collection contains 10 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Sky Stallion War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

10Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Summer 2023 Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Summer 2023 Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 2 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed, and this guide’s market comparison uses Factory New wear. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Summer 2023 War Paint Case

Container information · Series #141

Summer 2023 War Paint Case

Summer 2023 War Paint Case contains items from the Summer 2023 Collection. The case was introduced on 2023-07-11. Requires a Summer 2023 War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2023 Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary4 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Bomb Carrier War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

  • Pacific Peacemaker War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

  • Secretly Serviced War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

  • Team Serviced War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

Commando Grade
  • Mechanized Monster War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Steel Brushed War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Warborn War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade
  • Business Class War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

  • Deadly Dragon War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade
  • Sky Stallion War Paint

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2023 Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 52.27 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputPacific Peacemaker War Paint11.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost156 keys + 14.02 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputSecretly Serviced War Paint15 keys + 40.00 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bomb Carrier War Paint13.55 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Pacific Peacemaker War Paint11.66 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Secretly Serviced War Paint1 key + 16.00 refChecks when viewed15 keys + 40.00 refChecks when viewed
Team Serviced War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Mechanized Monster War Paint33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Steel Brushed War Paint33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Warborn War Paint33.3%26.00 refChecks when viewed11 keys + 36.44 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2023 Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost4 keys + 62.68 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputWarborn War Paint32.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost190 keys
Expected value53 keys + 17.45 ref
Expected P/L−136 keys − 46.88 ref
ROI-72.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputWarborn War Paint19 keys each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Mechanized Monster War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Steel Brushed War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Warborn War Paint32.00 refChecks when viewed19 keysChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Business Class War Paint50.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed44 keys + 1.11 refChecks when viewed
Deadly Dragon War Paint50.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed62 keys + 33.78 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2023 Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Business Class War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Deadly Dragon War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Sky Stallion War Paint100.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed94 keys + 0.22 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Summer 2023 Collection items

How to trade up to Mechanized Monster War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Mechanized Monster War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mechanized Monster War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Steel Brushed War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Steel Brushed War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Steel Brushed War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Warborn War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Warborn War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Warborn War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Business Class War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Business Class War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Business Class War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Deadly Dragon War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Deadly Dragon War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Deadly Dragon War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sky Stallion War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2023 Collection for a 100.00% chance of Sky Stallion War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Sky Stallion War Paint trade-up odds →

How Summer 2023 Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2023 Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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