How are Summer 2023 Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Summer 2023 Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2023 Collection contains 10 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Sky Stallion War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

10Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 21:59:56 GMT

Container information · Series #141

Summer 2023 War Paint Case

Summer 2023 War Paint Case contains items from the Summer 2023 Collection. The case was introduced on 2023-07-11. Requires a Summer 2023 War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2023 Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary4 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Bomb Carrier War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Pacific Peacemaker War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Secretly Serviced War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Team Serviced War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

Commando Grade

Mechanized Monster War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
Steel Brushed War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
Warborn War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade

Business Class War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%
Deadly Dragon War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade

Sky Stallion War Paint
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2023 Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$3.40

Expected value$2.62

Expected P/L−$0.78

ROI-22.8%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputBomb Carrier War Paint$0.34 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$140.50

Expected value$35.78

Expected P/L−$104.72

ROI-74.5%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputBomb Carrier War Paint$14.05 each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Bomb Carrier War Paint	$0.34	$14.05
Pacific Peacemaker War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Secretly Serviced War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Team Serviced War Paint	$0.70	$18.00

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Mechanized Monster War Paint	33.3%	$0.89	$16.82
Steel Brushed War Paint	33.3%	$6.19	$65.05
Warborn War Paint	33.3%	$0.79	$25.46

Summer 2023 Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$12.40

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputWarborn War Paint$1.24 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$299.80

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputMechanized Monster War Paint$29.98 each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Mechanized Monster War Paint	$1.41	$29.98
Steel Brushed War Paint	$8.28	$95.02
Warborn War Paint	$1.24	$39.81

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Business Class War Paint	50.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Deadly Dragon War Paint	50.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Summer 2023 Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask	Markets
Business Class War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Deadly Dragon War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Sky Stallion War Paint	100.0%	$7.01	$156.28

How to trade up to Summer 2023 Collection items

How to trade up to Mechanized Monster War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Mechanized Monster War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mechanized Monster War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Steel Brushed War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Steel Brushed War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Steel Brushed War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Warborn War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Warborn War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Warborn War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Business Class War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Business Class War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Business Class War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Deadly Dragon War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Deadly Dragon War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Deadly Dragon War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sky Stallion War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2023 Collection for a 100.00% chance of Sky Stallion War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sky Stallion War Paint trade-up odds →

How Summer 2023 Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2023 Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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