How are Concealed Killer Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Concealed Killer Collection Trade-Up Guide

Concealed Killer Collection contains 15 decorated weapons across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Red Rock Roscoe Pistol, Sand Cannon Rocket Launcher. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

15Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 21:58:40 GMT

Container information · Series #93

The Concealed Killer Weapons Case

The Concealed Killer Weapons Case contains items from the Concealed Killer Collection. The case was introduced on 2015-06-25. Requires a Gun Mettle Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Concealed Killer Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary6 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Backwoods Boomstick Shotgun
Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%
Forest Fire Flame Thrower
Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%
King of the Jungle Minigun
Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%
Masked Mender Medi Gun
Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%
Night Owl Sniper Rifle
Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%
Woodsy Widowmaker SMG
Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

Commando Grade

Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher
Commando · Chance: 4.00%
Night Terror Scattergun
Commando · Chance: 4.00%
Woodland Warrior Rocket Launcher
Commando · Chance: 4.00%
Wrapped Reviver Medi Gun
Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade

Psychedelic Slugger Revolver
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Purple Range Sniper Rifle
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Sudden Flurry Stickybomb Launcher
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade

Red Rock Roscoe Pistol
Elite · Chance: 0.40%
Sand Cannon Rocket Launcher
Elite · Chance: 0.40%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Concealed Killer Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$2.60

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputKing of the Jungle Minigun$0.26 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$79.00

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputMasked Mender Medi Gun$7.90 each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Backwoods Boomstick Shotgun	$0.50	$20.03
Forest Fire Flame Thrower	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
King of the Jungle Minigun	$0.26	$13.35
Masked Mender Medi Gun	$0.36	$7.90
Night Owl Sniper Rifle	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Woodsy Widowmaker SMG	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher	25.0%	$0.89	No eligible quote
Night Terror Scattergun	25.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Woodland Warrior Rocket Launcher	25.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Wrapped Reviver Medi Gun	25.0%	$0.99	$23.19

Concealed Killer Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$11.90

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputCarpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher$1.19 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$1074.10

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputWrapped Reviver Medi Gun$107.41 each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher	$1.19	No eligible quote
Night Terror Scattergun	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Woodland Warrior Rocket Launcher	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Wrapped Reviver Medi Gun	$1.55	$107.41

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Psychedelic Slugger Revolver	33.3%	$5.05	No eligible quote
Purple Range Sniper Rifle	33.3%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Sudden Flurry Stickybomb Launcher	33.3%	$2.92	No eligible quote

Concealed Killer Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$81.00

Expected value$22.56

Expected P/L−$58.44

ROI-72.1%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputPsychedelic Slugger Revolver$8.10 each

Strange

strange

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Psychedelic Slugger Revolver	$8.10	No eligible quote
Purple Range Sniper Rifle	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Sudden Flurry Stickybomb Launcher	$9.00	No eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Red Rock Roscoe Pistol	50.0%	$16.63	No eligible quote
Sand Cannon Rocket Launcher	50.0%	$28.50	No eligible quote

How to trade up to Concealed Killer Collection items

How to trade up to Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 25.00% chance of Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Night Terror Scattergun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 25.00% chance of Night Terror Scattergun, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Night Terror Scattergun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Woodland Warrior Rocket Launcher

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 25.00% chance of Woodland Warrior Rocket Launcher, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Woodland Warrior Rocket Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Wrapped Reviver Medi Gun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 25.00% chance of Wrapped Reviver Medi Gun, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Wrapped Reviver Medi Gun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Psychedelic Slugger Revolver

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 33.33% chance of Psychedelic Slugger Revolver, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Psychedelic Slugger Revolver trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Purple Range Sniper Rifle

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 33.33% chance of Purple Range Sniper Rifle, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Purple Range Sniper Rifle trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sudden Flurry Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 33.33% chance of Sudden Flurry Stickybomb Launcher, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sudden Flurry Stickybomb Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Red Rock Roscoe Pistol

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 50.00% chance of Red Rock Roscoe Pistol, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Red Rock Roscoe Pistol trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sand Cannon Rocket Launcher

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 50.00% chance of Sand Cannon Rocket Launcher, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sand Cannon Rocket Launcher trade-up odds →

How Concealed Killer Collection odds work

With ten Concealed Killer Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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