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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Concealed Killer Collection Trade-Up Guide

Concealed Killer Collection contains 15 decorated weapons across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Red Rock Roscoe Pistol, Sand Cannon Rocket Launcher. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

15Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Concealed Killer Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Concealed Killer Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed, and this guide’s market comparison uses Factory New wear. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

The Concealed Killer Weapons Case

Container information · Series #93

The Concealed Killer Weapons Case

The Concealed Killer Weapons Case contains items from the Concealed Killer Collection. The case was introduced on 2015-06-25. Requires a Gun Mettle Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Concealed Killer Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary6 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Backwoods Boomstick Shotgun

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Forest Fire Flame Thrower

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • King of the Jungle Minigun

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Masked Mender Medi Gun

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Night Owl Sniper Rifle

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Woodsy Widowmaker SMG

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

Commando Grade
  • Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Night Terror Scattergun

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Woodland Warrior Rocket Launcher

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Wrapped Reviver Medi Gun

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Psychedelic Slugger Revolver

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Purple Range Sniper Rifle

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Sudden Flurry Stickybomb Launcher

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Red Rock Roscoe Pistol

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Sand Cannon Rocket Launcher

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Concealed Killer Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 12.27 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputWoodsy Widowmaker SMG7.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Backwoods Boomstick Shotgun14.22 refChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed
Forest Fire Flame ThrowerSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
King of the Jungle MinigunSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Masked Mender Medi GunSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Night Owl Sniper RifleNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Woodsy Widowmaker SMG7.66 refChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher25.0%15.22 refChecks when viewed15 keys + 0.11 refChecks when viewed
Night Terror Scattergun25.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed21 keys + 15.00 refChecks when viewed
Woodland Warrior Rocket Launcher25.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Wrapped Reviver Medi Gun25.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Concealed Killer Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× cost270 keys
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputCarpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher27 keys each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Carpet Bomber Stickybomb LauncherNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed27 keysChecks when viewed
Night Terror ScattergunSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed38 keysChecks when viewed
Woodland Warrior Rocket LauncherSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Wrapped Reviver Medi GunSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Psychedelic Slugger Revolver33.3%1 key + 30.55 refChecks when viewed51 keys + 0.66 refChecks when viewed
Purple Range Sniper Rifle33.3%6 keys + 15.00 refChecks when viewed200 keysChecks when viewed
Sudden Flurry Stickybomb Launcher33.3%1 key + 48.11 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Concealed Killer Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost104 keys + 42.68 ref
Expected value11 keys + 32.22 ref
Expected P/L−93 keys − 10.46 ref
ROI-89.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputPurple Range Sniper Rifle10 keys + 30.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Psychedelic Slugger RevolverNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Purple Range Sniper Rifle10 keys + 30.00 refChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed
Sudden Flurry Stickybomb LauncherNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Red Rock Roscoe Pistol50.0%7 keysChecks when viewed210 keysChecks when viewed
Sand Cannon Rocket Launcher50.0%16 keys + 0.11 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Concealed Killer Collection items

How to trade up to Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 25.00% chance of Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Night Terror Scattergun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 25.00% chance of Night Terror Scattergun, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Night Terror Scattergun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Woodland Warrior Rocket Launcher

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 25.00% chance of Woodland Warrior Rocket Launcher, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Woodland Warrior Rocket Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Wrapped Reviver Medi Gun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 25.00% chance of Wrapped Reviver Medi Gun, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Wrapped Reviver Medi Gun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Psychedelic Slugger Revolver

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 33.33% chance of Psychedelic Slugger Revolver, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Psychedelic Slugger Revolver trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Purple Range Sniper Rifle

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 33.33% chance of Purple Range Sniper Rifle, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Purple Range Sniper Rifle trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sudden Flurry Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 33.33% chance of Sudden Flurry Stickybomb Launcher, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sudden Flurry Stickybomb Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Red Rock Roscoe Pistol

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 50.00% chance of Red Rock Roscoe Pistol, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Red Rock Roscoe Pistol trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sand Cannon Rocket Launcher

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Concealed Killer Collection for a 50.00% chance of Sand Cannon Rocket Launcher, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sand Cannon Rocket Launcher trade-up odds →

How Concealed Killer Collection odds work

With ten Concealed Killer Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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