How are Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection contains 20 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Towering Pile Of Presents. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

20Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:01:39 GMT

Container information · Series #130

Winter 2020 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2020 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2020-12-04. Requires a Winter 2020 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Bear Walker
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Candy Cantlers
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Elf Care Provider
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Festive Fascinator
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Festive Flip-thwomps
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Jolly Jingler
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Particulate Protector
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Reindoonibeanie
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Shoestring Santa
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Killing Tree
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade

BedBug Protection
Commando · Chance: 2.67%
Blitzen Bowl
Commando · Chance: 2.67%
Night Ward
Commando · Chance: 2.67%
Professional's Pom-Pom
Commando · Chance: 2.67%
SandMann's Brush
Commando · Chance: 2.67%
The Smissmas Sorcerer
Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade

Helm Helm
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
The Round-A-Bout
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Towering Pillar of Beanies
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade

Towering Pile Of Presents
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost30.50 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputFestive Fascinator3.05 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost42.20 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputFestive Fascinator4.22 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Bear Walker	12.11 ref	23.11 ref
Candy Cantlers	3.11 ref	5.88 ref
Elf Care Provider	3.11 ref	5.33 ref
Festive Fascinator	3.05 ref	4.22 ref
Festive Flip-thwomps	4.44 ref	10.77 ref
Jolly Jingler	3.11 ref	No eligible quote
Particulate Protector	6.44 ref	26.55 ref
Reindoonibeanie	7.88 ref	No eligible quote
Shoestring Santa	3.33 ref	8.77 ref
The Killing Tree	3.05 ref	No eligible quote

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
BedBug Protection	16.7%	27.22 ref	46.00 ref
Blitzen Bowl	16.7%	7.44 ref	12.88 ref
Night Ward	16.7%	1 key + 5.77 ref	2 keys + 44.33 ref
Professional's Pom-Pom	16.7%	7.44 ref	21.11 ref
SandMann's Brush	16.7%	4.00 ref	14.77 ref
The Smissmas Sorcerer	16.7%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost36.60 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBlitzen Bowl3.66 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost2 keys + 10.14 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBlitzen Bowl13.88 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
BedBug Protection	28.00 ref	46.66 ref
Blitzen Bowl	3.66 ref	13.88 ref
Night Ward	No eligible quote	2 keys + 44.88 ref
Professional's Pom-Pom	8.11 ref	No eligible quote
SandMann's Brush	4.55 ref	No eligible quote
The Smissmas Sorcerer	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Helm Helm	33.3%	9.55 ref	48.22 ref
The Round-A-Bout	33.3%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Towering Pillar of Beanies	33.3%	10.00 ref	40.88 ref

Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost1 key + 35.67 ref

Expected value19.00 ref

Expected P/L−1 key − 16.67 ref

ROI-81.0%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputHelm Helm10.00 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost7 keys + 48.49 ref

Expected value57.33 ref

Expected P/L−6 keys − 55.49 ref

ROI-88.5%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputHelm Helm49.88 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Helm Helm	10.00 ref	49.88 ref
The Round-A-Bout	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Towering Pillar of Beanies	10.44 ref	57.55 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Towering Pile Of Presents	100.0%	19.00 ref	57.33 ref

How to trade up to Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to BedBug Protection

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of BedBug Protection, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate BedBug Protection trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Blitzen Bowl

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Blitzen Bowl, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blitzen Bowl trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Night Ward

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Night Ward, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Night Ward trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Professional's Pom-Pom

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Professional's Pom-Pom, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Professional's Pom-Pom trade-up odds →

How to trade up to SandMann's Brush

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of SandMann's Brush, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate SandMann's Brush trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Smissmas Sorcerer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of The Smissmas Sorcerer, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Smissmas Sorcerer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Helm Helm

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Helm Helm, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Helm Helm trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Round-A-Bout

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Round-A-Bout, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Round-A-Bout trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Towering Pillar of Beanies

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Towering Pillar of Beanies, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Towering Pillar of Beanies trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Towering Pile Of Presents

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of Towering Pile Of Presents, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Towering Pile Of Presents trade-up odds →

How Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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