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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection contains 20 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Towering Pile Of Presents. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

20Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 6 outputs has a 16.67% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 8.33% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Winter 2020 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #130

Winter 2020 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2020 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2020-12-04. Requires a Winter 2020 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Bear Walker

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Candy Cantlers

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Elf Care Provider

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Festive Fascinator

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Festive Flip-thwomps

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Jolly Jingler

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Particulate Protector

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Reindoonibeanie

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Shoestring Santa

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Killing Tree

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • BedBug Protection

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Blitzen Bowl

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Night Ward

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Professional's Pom-Pom

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • SandMann's Brush

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • The Smissmas Sorcerer

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Helm Helm

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Round-A-Bout

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Towering Pillar of Beanies

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Towering Pile Of Presents

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost28.80 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputElf Care Provider2.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost38.80 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputFestive Fascinator3.88 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bear Walker8.88 refChecks when viewed22.88 refChecks when viewed
Candy Cantlers3.00 refChecks when viewed6.11 refChecks when viewed
Elf Care Provider2.88 refChecks when viewed4.22 refChecks when viewed
Festive Fascinator3.00 refChecks when viewed3.88 refChecks when viewed
Festive Flip-thwomps4.00 refChecks when viewed10.77 refChecks when viewed
Jolly Jingler3.00 refChecks when viewed4.44 refChecks when viewed
Particulate Protector5.44 refChecks when viewed20.11 refChecks when viewed
Reindoonibeanie7.77 refChecks when viewed23.66 refChecks when viewed
Shoestring Santa3.88 refChecks when viewed7.88 refChecks when viewed
The Killing Tree3.00 refChecks when viewed4.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
BedBug Protection16.7%24.33 refChecks when viewed47.55 refChecks when viewed
Blitzen Bowl16.7%3.00 refChecks when viewed13.44 refChecks when viewed
Night Ward16.7%1 key + 2.11 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 35.44 refChecks when viewed
Professional's Pom-Pom16.7%8.88 refChecks when viewed27.22 refChecks when viewed
SandMann's Brush16.7%3.33 refChecks when viewed12.22 refChecks when viewed
The Smissmas Sorcerer16.7%Buy order scan pendingChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed

Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost31.10 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputBlitzen Bowl3.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 2.44 ref
Expected value31.07 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 35.70 ref
ROI-76.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSandMann's Brush13.11 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
BedBug Protection24.22 refChecks when viewed50.00 refChecks when viewed
Blitzen Bowl3.11 refChecks when viewed13.77 refChecks when viewed
Night Ward1 key + 2.33 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 41.44 refChecks when viewed
Professional's Pom-Pom8.88 refChecks when viewed28.55 refChecks when viewed
SandMann's Brush3.44 refChecks when viewed13.11 refChecks when viewed
The Smissmas SorcererSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Helm Helm33.3%7.11 refChecks when viewed40.77 refChecks when viewed
The Round-A-Bout33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed1.00 refChecks when viewed
Towering Pillar of Beanies33.3%9.44 refChecks when viewed51.44 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 7.87 ref
Expected value21.11 ref
Expected P/L−51.09 ref
ROI-70.8%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputHelm Helm7.22 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost6 keys + 24.02 ref
Expected value58.55 ref
Expected P/L−5 keys − 29.80 ref
ROI-85.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputHelm Helm41.00 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Helm Helm7.22 refChecks when viewed41.00 refChecks when viewed
The Round-A-BoutSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed
Towering Pillar of Beanies9.66 refChecks when viewed58.55 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Towering Pile Of Presents100.0%21.11 refChecks when viewed58.55 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to BedBug Protection

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of BedBug Protection, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate BedBug Protection trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Blitzen Bowl

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Blitzen Bowl, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blitzen Bowl trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Night Ward

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Night Ward, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Night Ward trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Professional's Pom-Pom

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Professional's Pom-Pom, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Professional's Pom-Pom trade-up odds →

How to trade up to SandMann's Brush

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of SandMann's Brush, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate SandMann's Brush trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Smissmas Sorcerer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of The Smissmas Sorcerer, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Smissmas Sorcerer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Helm Helm

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Helm Helm, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Helm Helm trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Round-A-Bout

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Round-A-Bout, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Round-A-Bout trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Towering Pillar of Beanies

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Towering Pillar of Beanies, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Towering Pillar of Beanies trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Towering Pile Of Presents

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of Towering Pile Of Presents, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Towering Pile Of Presents trade-up odds →

How Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2020 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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