Commando grade·Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection
Train Of Thought
Train Of Thought is a Commando-grade cosmetic from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection. Ten compatible Mercenary inputs from this collection give a 16.67% chance of this item, one of 6 possible results.
Train Of Thought prices
A buy order is what a buyer offers you; a sell listing is what you pay. These are saved observations, not reserved stock. Unusual variants are excluded; a quality option does not guarantee market availability. How to compare buy/sell prices and convert keys to refined.
backpack.tf: Requesting a price check…
Steam: Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.
| Market | Highest eligible buy order | Lowest eligible sell listing |
|---|---|---|
| backpack.tfClean bot quotes · keys / refined | 3.55 refSaved eligible quote | 3.66 refSaved eligible quote |
Saved data reloads every 30 seconds. Each quote’s timestamp shows its actual check time. Queued checks are not completed checks, and expired prices remain reference-only.
Planning a Train Of Thought trade-up
Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection has 6 Commando outcomes. A Mercenary input from this collection contributes 1.67% to the chance of this specific item. Repeating one input name or mixing different names within the same tier does not change that share.
| Inputs from this collection per 10-item contract | 1 contract | 5 contracts | 10 contracts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | 16.67% | 59.81% | 83.85% |
| 5 of 10 | 8.33% | 35.28% | 58.11% |
| 1 of 10 | 1.67% | 8.06% | 15.47% |
These are theoretical, independent attempts with an unchanged recipe, not forecasts or case-opening odds. Five contracts consume 50 inputs; ten consume 100. Other inputs must be compatible and come from other collections. All ten inputs must be Non-Strange and the same grade. A higher chance of this item is not necessarily a higher chance of profit.
Buy Train Of Thought directly or attempt a trade-up?
Compare the target’s eligible sell listing with the total cost of ten compatible inputs. A trade-up buys a chance at every possible result—not just Train Of Thought. Evaluate all 6 outputs from this collection, plus any outputs introduced by mixing collections. Use eligible backpack.tf buy orders for estimated resale proceeds; an asking price is not an instant cash-out price.
Missing or stale output quotes mean profitability is unconfirmed, not that the output is worth zero. A saved listing also does not prove that ten copies are available. Check timestamps, quality, and stock before spending.
How to trade up to Train Of Thought
Ten compatible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection give a 16.67% chance of Train Of Thought: one of 6 equally likely Commando outputs. Mix the input items below, keeping Strange and Non-Strange separate.
With five inputs from this collection in a ten-item mixed-collection contract, its collection share is 50%, so Train Of Thought's probability becomes 8.33%. These are trade-up odds, not case-opening odds.
Compatible Mercenary inputs
What can Train Of Thought trade up into?
Ten compatible Commando items from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection produce one of 3 Assassin outputs, each with 33.33% probability. You can use ten copies of Train Of Thought or mix items from its tier, keeping all ten Non-Strange.
Hat Chocolate
Assassin · 33.33%
Jolly Jester
Assassin · 33.33%
Merry Cone
Assassin · 33.33%
Calculator links open research recipes, not purchases. Availability, compatible variants, fees and price changes affect results; positive expected value does not guarantee profit.