TF2 Trade-Up Calculator

Build smarter TF2 trade-ups with current market prices, exact contract odds, expected value and profit estimates.

Pricing notesLowest exact clean sell in, highest exact clean buy order out.Show

Backpack.tf pricing: Unique and Strange input acquisition uses the lowest exact, filtered sell listing. Output liquidation uses the highest exact, filtered buy order. Missing sell listings stay unquoted and are excluded from profitability calculations.

Decorated weapon and War Paint pricing: use Steam USD mode for wear-bearing items such as the Pyroland weapon skins and War Paints. backpack.tf condition markets can be thin or mismatched, so verify the exact Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, or Battle Scarred condition.

Prices checked Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:43:10 GMT

Opportunity Board

TheoreticalStrange + Non-Strange

Non-Strange and Strange pairs with fully quoted outcomes. Cost multiplies one cheapest exact ask by ten; listing depth, availability, fees and slippage are not modeled.

Profitable opportunities first · ranked by ROI

Showing 5 of 29 matching opportunities

Research ranking only: verify that ten eligible inputs can actually be purchased at the shown price before trading. Outputs use the highest filtered buy order; fees are excluded.

Collection	Trade-up	Quality	Quoted ask ×10	EV	P/L	ROI	Win %	Cover
Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection	Commando → Assassin	Non-Strange	40.00 ref	56.61 ref	+16.61 ref	41.5%	75%	4/4
Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection	Commando → Assassin	Non-Strange	35.50 ref	49.30 ref	+13.80 ref	38.9%	40%	5/5
Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection	Commando → Assassin	Non-Strange	1 key + 3.37 ref	1 key + 27.74 ref	+24.37 ref	36.0%	33%	3/3
Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection	Assassin → Elite	Non-Strange	4 keys + 60.38 ref	6 keys + 27.00 ref	+1 key + 30.94 ref	30.0%	50%	2/2
Spectral Stash Collection	Mercenary → Commando	Strange	50.00 ref	63.58 ref	+13.58 ref	27.2%	57%	7/7

Contract bench

Build a TF2 Trade-Up Contract

Single collection

Pick a collection and input grade, then load ten items into the crate.

CollectionInput rarityItem qualityDefault wearUsed when adding decorated weapons or War Paints.

Strange Captain Space Mann

Strange · Commando

8 keys + 45.00 ref · Quarantined Collection Case

Strange Rocket Operator

Strange · Commando

8 keys + 26.77 ref · Quarantined Collection Case

Strange The Shooting Star

Strange · Commando

69 keys · Quarantined Collection Case

Crate: 0/10

Input quotes: 3/3

Contract intelligence

Live EV model

Input cost

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0/10 items

Expected value

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0/0 outputs quoted

Expected P/L

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ROI

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Chance of profit

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Of quoted outcomes

Break-even output

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Output must sell above this

Outcome table · Assassin

Equal probability across 0 outputs

Add an eligible input to see this collection's possible outputs.

Simulation runs

SeedLoad exactly 10 quoted inputs to simulate.

TF2 Trade-Up Calculator

Opportunity Board

Build a TF2 Trade-Up Contract

Contract intelligence

Outcome table · Assassin

Methodology & data notes